Stock Forecast
Actual 24-month Xero item history + current 56-day stock/burn report. Launch/ramp-up months can be excluded from SKU seasonality so new products do not create false weak-month patterns.
History24 monthsSep 2024 – Aug 2026
Current run-rate window56 days17 Jul – 11 Sep 2026
Wholesale YoY—Sep–Aug vs prior year
Model volume guardrail—next 18 weeks vs prior year
days
%
Projected carton and keg stock
committed onlyideal suggestions (unlimited FVs)suggestions with FV assignedreplenishment minimumzero stock
Selected SKU
Core beer stock cover
Weekly view using committed production and suggested runs that have tanks assigned. Each box is split diagonally: cartons upper-left and kegs lower-right, with projected units and an independent replenishment-risk colour for each format.
Current stock position
| Beer | SKU | Format | Current units | 56-day sales | Recent daily L | Recent seasonal baseline | Days cover | Replenishment min | Min = days cover | Target package date | Indicative brew date | Status |
|---|
Beer-specific seasonality
Each 12-month cycle is normalised before averaging. Known launch/ramp months are excluded. Unsupported one-off spikes are damped against the relevant carton/keg cohort, while repeated SKU-specific patterns are retained more strongly. Very low-volume or short-history curves are blended toward their package cohort. Actual sales history is always retained. 1.00 = an average day for that beer/package.
Seasonal index — cartons
Seasonal index — kegs
How seasonality is adjusted
Actual sales are never changed. Adjustments affect only the recurring seasonal curve. Each 12-month cycle is normalised before averaging; Layback and Goofy’s launch/ramp months are excluded from recurring seasonality; unsupported one-off monthly spikes are damped toward the median movement of the relevant package cohort; low-volume keg SKUs and short-history products are blended more strongly toward their cohort; repeated patterns retain more SKU-specific weight. Known stockouts can adjust the recent demand anchor separately (currently Layback kegs, Aug-26).
Refresh cadence: re-import the latest sales history every 3 months by default (6 months maximum) and recalculate the curves. The model should retain an audit note showing the data period, excluded ramp months, stockout adjustments and any damped outliers so changes are explainable.
Adjustment audit
| SKU / cohort | Adjustment | Reason / method |
|---|
Replenishment Plan
Finished-goods minimums are stored in physical units. The planner works backward from the date each SKU is forecast to reach its minimum; the displayed days cover is calculated from forward forecast demand at that date.
Production lead time is currently a planning default. Tank/day scheduling and live in-process brews from the shared eBrew/Supabase database will be incorporated in the scheduler stage.
SKU replenishment settings
Forecast starts from the 11 Sep 2026 Xero closing stock and automatically adds committed packaging from the current Stock Forecast sheet on its planned packaging date. Replenishment thresholds may be any whole number of cases/kegs; actual canning runs will still be rounded to 16-case layers later in scheduling.
| Beer | SKU | Format | Current units | Replenishment minimum | Forward days cover at minimum | Target package date | Indicative brew date |
|---|
Beer production requirements
| Beer | Earliest package need | Indicative brew by | Default brew | Indicative batches | Hawkers eligible | Notes |
|---|
Graphical Brew Plan
Resource-constrained 18-week production board. Committed packaging is shown first, then the planner continues with forecast-driven suggested runs. FV and BBT conflicts are surfaced rather than hidden.
Planned runs—committed + suggested
FV conflicts—unallocated / overlapping
BBT conflicts—unallocated / overlapping
Brew-day conflicts—over daily brewhouse limit
Can-day conflicts—over 250 cases/day
Committed packaging from the current Stock Forecast sheet is shown first, then the planner continues through the full ~4-month horizon. Beer transfers to brite are fixed to Thursday. Automatic brew scheduling remains Monday–Wednesday; Thursday may be selected manually for one single brew or cider, using a 14-day dwell. Suggested brews require an ingredient-order cutoff. Drag an FV brew directly onto another brew to swap tanks, or park it in a separate Unallocated row. Suggested runs can be scaled between single and double when moved to a compatible tank. Physical overlap and refill-cadence rules remain hard-blocked. Goofy’s is BBT-only. “Save proposed plan” commits only fully allocated suggestions and leaves unallocated suggestions proposed.
Add / Edit Brew & Packaging
Click any run in the graphical plan to load it here. Package quantities may be manually adjusted for committed, Hawkers, contract, limited-release and planner-suggested runs. Automatic internal core splits are capped at 128 cartons per run; manual edits are not capped.
BrewProcess taskTransferPackageCommittedPlanner suggestedUNALLOCATED = insufficient resource
Daily brewery actions
Wholesale Revenue Guardrail
P&L wholesale revenue is used as the business-level sanity check, not as the source of beer mix seasonality.
Sep 2024 – Aug 2025—wholesale revenue
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026—wholesale revenue
Actual YoY growth—latest full 12 months
Monthly wholesale revenue
Default planning guardrail is +10% YoY. The latest complete Sep–Aug period actually grew faster than that, so the planner displays both the target and the observed business trend. We will not force every beer to grow by the same percentage.
Planning Rules
Stage 2 starts moving these from fixed assumptions to editable planning settings. Replenishment minimums and production lead time are editable now; remaining constraints move to persisted Supabase settings with the scheduler.
Brew sizing
Default: double brew. Normally single: Birdrock Brown, Raglan Haze and Sea-Cider. Posso's IPA may be single in winter when demand only justifies a smaller batch.
Yield assumptions
Planning volume: ~2,400 L double / ~1,200 L single into FV. Initial packaged-yield assumption: ~2,100 L double / ~1,050 L single, editable later.
External production
Hawkers eligible: Endless Summer Lager and Addis Pale Ale. Standard external batch: 8,000 L.
Endless white label
Reserve ~32 cartons (288 L) from every other Endless packaging run for white-label stock, on top of normal retail inventory planning.
Reserved FV capacity
Keep the equivalent of 3 × 1,200 L FV slots plus 0.5 × 2,400 L FV slot available for contract and limited releases.
Packaging
Cartons are allocated according to forecast SKU need and rounded to multiples of 16 cases. Automatic mixed-format runs are canned first, then kegged/casked on the next working day. Canning is spread across nearby days with a target maximum of 250 cases/day. Manually dragged packaging dates remain fixed.
Weekly workflow
Brewhouse capacity is one double OR two singles per day. Auto-scheduling uses Mon–Wed brew days and lengthens FV dwell where needed rather than moving the Thursday transfer. If two singles share a day, lighter beer is brewed first. Transfer to brite is a hard Thursday requirement; BBT holds through packaging the following week.
Contract packaging
Uses BBT only. Water transferred Thursday; canning normally following Wednesday.
Xero Stock & Plan Check
Read-only Xero inventory snapshots compared with the saved, physically allocated production plan. Checks flag stock drift and replenishment risk but never rearrange the brew plan automatically.
ConnectionChecking…—
Last successful checkNeverweekly or on demand
Plan findings—low stock, stockout or material drift
Plan changesReview firstnever silently rescheduled
How the check works
The automatic check captures current Xero quantity-on-hand once each Monday morning. An on-demand check can be run at any time. The latest Xero quantity is compared with stock expected from the saved allocated plan on the same date, then forecast forward using future committed packaging and allocated suggested production. Findings are for review only.
No inventory snapshot yet.
Current Xero stock against the plan
| SKU | Beer / format | Expected now | Xero now | Variance | Minimum | Status | Review finding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading Xero status… | |||||||
Item-code audit
No snapshot loaded.